5 Things We Learned - Round 6
A chance to move to fifth place on the AFL ladder and be equal second with a number of sides was up for grabs before the opening bounce of Sunday night’s 6:45pm game but there was only embarrassment once the final siren went on what was a disastrous night for the Western Bulldogs.
Watching last night was like being in a time machine, going back to round five last year (which was also coincidently against Carlton) and seeing another hefty loss.
Yes the margin blew out in the end but that is a testament to the Blues for playing out the game and gaining valuable percentage. In a shortened season, percentage is just as important as the four points and we took a big step back in that matter as ours took a hammering.
1. Kick to Handball Ratio and the First Quarter Debacle
Going into Sunday night’s game Carlton had one of the highest Kick to Handball rations (1:0.86 k:h) in the competition while we had one of the lowest (1:1.3 k:h) and after the game is was evident which team’s style was more successful in simplifying the game to combat the weather conditions.
Post-match, Carlton had 33 more kicks and 44 less handpasses, favouring a more direct approach when in possession of the ball for a kick to handpass ratio of 2.14 to our 1.22. This can be seen with the Dogs having six of the top seven players for handpasses whereas the Blues had five players in the top seven on the ground for most kicks.
After holding our GWS, Sydney and North Melbourne to a collective of 111 points across 12 quarters with just the 2 goals across the opening quarters, to concede 32 points from one term was rather frustrating. It wasn’t just the five goals but the manner of ease at which it was done.
Losing the centre square duel isn’t ideal in any shape or form but to allow 6-1 clearance differential in the opening quarter, gave our defenders little time to set up as the ball was immediately kicked in an efficient manner on six of their 13 inside 50 entries. This was in contrast to ours where just one of our 14 inside 50 entries came via a centre clearance.
This again comes back to the kick to handpass ratio which saw the Dogs go at 1.08 (42 kicks and 39 handpasses) compared to the Blues 2.04 (47 kicks and 23 handpasses) in the first quarter.
We did not adjust enough to the wet weather game despite a shift in the way we carried the ball after quarter time and it left us chasing tail for the rest of the game, burning plenty of petrol tickets to just get back into it after playing a taxing game style.
The conditions were not conducive to the Bulldogs "handball-happy" style of play. Source: Getty Images
2. Conversion of Inside 50s to Goals
We’ve seen it 100 times before and we will probably see it another 100 times more, but the inability to put scoreboard pressure after periods of dominance is utterly deflating. Conceding 16 goals to a side who regularly struggles to kick more than 10 goals a game over the past five years is nothing short of embarrassing. What makes it more infuriating is that since the start of 2019, the Blues have averages 69 points against its 16 other clubs but 101 against us. Sunday night’s game saw the Dogs notch up 16 scoring shots from 53 entries converting at 30% compared to the Blues 22 scoring shots from 41 entries at 54% and to lose by 52 points after a last quarter blowout was piss poor to say the least.
After a poor first term we started to regain control of the game in the second and third quarters winning the territory battle (31-17 inside 50s) and possession (+23 disposals) game but we simply didn’t get reward for effort. For all that control we kicked just the five goals (16% Inside 50 to goal conversion) trimming the quarter time 19 point margin by a single behind, while the Blues went at 29% across those two terms.
Over past three seasons only the Melbourne Demons have recorded more losses (20) despite recording more inside 50s than the Bulldogs (13) and it is rather infuriating as we aren’t necessarily playing poorly but more so shooting ourselves in the foot.
We aren’t the most clinical side and with us not capitalising on that statistical control you can hardly expect to be winning a game especially on top of gifting the opposition 68 points from turnovers.
Surprisingly we lead the tackles inside 50 count; 16-7, but it certainly did not appear that way as the Blues had 20 more rebounds from their defensive 50 (25-45) exiting the ball at will allowing easy transition between the defensive and forward arcs.
3. The Small Forward Problem 2.0
Two weeks ago against the Sydney Swans I made a point about our backline getting smacked by pesky opportunist small forwards and that was the case once again on Sunday night as Eddie Betts put through four goals while Jack Martin did as he pleased with two goals, nine score involvements (above his season average of six) and three contested marks. This lesson isn’t going to reiterate the need to contain them but the lack of one at our end of the ground. A genuine true goal sneak is hard to find and nowadays they are worth a premium and I was rather annoyed when Martin chose the Blues over us. With our first draft pick last year we drafted a crafty small forward in Cody Weightman, and it's been confirmed that he will debut this week, but is he ready to fill the hole right now? Perhaps but apparently he plays more like Jamie Elliot as a marking target than a legit ground ball crumber. We’ve had success with make shift small forwards but we haven’t had a legitimate dedicated small forward in quite some time.
The Bulldogs have long been crying out for a goalsneak, and prized recruit Cody Weightman will get his chance this week. Source: Getty Images
4. It’s Not the End of the World, But Are We Just a Tease?
We’ve had a decent restart to the season winning three consecutive games but for the umpteenth time since 2017 and especially 2019, we have gone into a game as favourites, proceed to be defeated and blow another opportunity to put some distance between us and the pack.
We are a capable team for sure and for the most part tend to put our best foot forward but sometimes inconsistency is consistency itself and over the past few years this is starting to no longer be a trend but an identity. Yes it is one loss but we’ve seen these types of losses before and it put us in a delicate position last year with us having to make up plenty of ground to just make the top eight.
Do we underestimate certain sides? Probably not but the question remains.
There are good sides, poor sides and some in-between. Generally if a side is a bit off their game they are beatable but a good side should still get the job done. What is our identity? We’ve shown we can respond when the chips are down but to do it when we are expected to, is another challenge the group must pass.
5. Can We Handle the Hub?
The Hub Life is a challenge every side will have to go through in this rollercoaster of a season. To date some have coped better than the rest like Port Adelaide, others are yet to hit their straps like the West Coast Eagles and some have been downright diabolical like Adelaide. Over the course of the next several weeks we shall get a gauge on how well we can cope within this environment and how much it affects the playing group.
The Hub Life will largely determine how successful a side will be throughout the season and the ability to stay ahead of the curve is integral as ever where there are number of sides struggling to hold consistent form. With Essendon and Gold Coast on the horizon, we could quickly find ourselves behind the eight ball if we aren’t able to adjust quickly.