2024 Finals - How Do We Qualify?

Despite 23 rounds of football already being logged in the books, and the Western Bulldogs winning five of their last six games, their fate is still no closer to being decided, with Top 4, Top 6 and missing out of finals action altogether still live possibilities as we head into the final round of the season.

The only guaranteed game left is against the GWS Giants at Mars Stadium on Sunday. The Bulldogs finals fate will be in their own hands, but with an entire round of fixtures still to play out, there are countless possibilities that could transpire come the end of the home-and-away season. So without further ado, let’s take a closer look at what could happen, based on the Bulldogs performance against the Giants.

IF THE BULLDOGS WIN:

The Bulldogs will guarantee themselves finals should they defeat the Giants on Sunday. The obvious question left to ask in this scenario is who do they play?

Assuming the Bulldogs hold their position in 6th place, Hawthorn would be the most likely opponent. They currently sit in 7th place, and would face off against the Dogs in an Elimination Final if the season ended now. They finish their season against North Melbourne in Tasmania, and you would expect them to hold their position with a win there.

Both Fremantle and Carlton would have the opportunity to leapfrog the Hawks in the event that Hawthorn suffer a surprise defeat, although the Bulldogs wouldn’t know their opponent until later in the day, as both teams compete after the conclusion of our game against GWS. Fremantle will host Port Adelaide in Perth, while Carlton play St Kilda. Assuming Hawthorn do lose, if both Carlton and Fremantle win on top of that, then the Bulldogs will face Carlton in an Elimination Final. If Carlton lose and Fremantle win (or draw), then the Bulldogs will host the Dockers.

Branching out into more unrealistic scenarios Collingwood could still finish the season in as high as 7th place if they defeat Melbourne and all three of Carlton, Fremantle and Hawthorn lose. But the margins required are so unrealistic that it’s not a realistic possibility.

While on the topic of the unrealistic, the Bulldogs could still finish as low as 8th even with victory over the Giants, as both Carlton and Hawthorn could overtake them on percentage, although it would require Carlton and Hawthorn both winning by several hundred points.

Looking upward, Top Four is actually still within reach for the Bulldogs, although it would require some big upsets to transpire. If both Geelong (v West Coast) and Brisbane (v Essendon) fall, then the Bulldogs would sneak into 4th spot and play Sydney in a Qualifying Final at the SCG. If only one of those teams lose, the Bulldogs would finish 5th and face 8th in an Elimination Final. In that scenario, any one of Hawthorn, Carlton, Fremantle or Collingwood would be the opponent. Again, it would take until the very end of the home-and-away season for an opponent to be confirmed.

The Western Bulldogs could very well face Fremantle in an Elimination Final this year - just as they did in 2022. Source: Getty Images

IF THE BULLDOGS LOSE:

Finals aren’t definitely off the table, but following defeat to the Giants, Bulldogs eyes would quickly turn to Marvel Stadium to see how Carlton fare against St Kilda, before tuning in to the very last game of the season: Fremantle v Port Adelaide. Assuming Hawthorn defeat North Melbourne the day before, the Bulldogs will be sweating on either of those final two games to work in their favour.

If all of Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle secure victory, the Bulldogs will finish 9th and miss finals. If any one of those three lose, the Bulldogs will finish in 8th spot and face either Brisbane or Geelong in an Elimination Final. If any two of those three teams lose, then the Bulldogs will finish 7th and face the third team that did win. However, if Hawthorn and Carlton lose but Fremantle manage to DRAW, then the Bulldogs would host an Elimination Final against the Dockers, rather than travel. Hawthorn and Carlton are both level on points with the Bulldogs, so a draw would still see them overtake the Bulldogs.

If all three lose, then the Bulldogs would remain in 6th place, and would face either Hawthorn or Carlton in an Elimination Final, depending on the respective margins of defeat (Hawthorn and Carlton are currently separated by just 1.1%).

IF THE BULLDOGS DRAW:

The Bulldogs haven’t been involved in a draw since 2008, but in the interest of covering all bases, what would happen in such an unlikely scenario?

A draw would also be good enough for the Bulldogs to make finals, regardless of what happens elsewhere. They could finish as high as 5th if all of Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle and Hawthorn all lose, in which case they would face Carlton, instead. The lowest they could finish is 9th, but again, the Bulldogs superior percentage would mean that Fremantle would have to defeat Port Adelaide by a significant triple-figure margin to overtake them. The more likely result would be that the Bulldogs finish 8th and face either Brisbane or Geelong in an Elimination Final. If only one of Carlton or Hawthorn lose, than we would finish 7th and face whichever side won in an Elimination Final.

SUMMARY

With so much up in the air still, it can be very complicated trying to nail down all the possible combinations into a concise paragraph. As for the Western Bulldogs, they can still finish anywhere between fourth and ninth, with seven different clubs still in the mix as potential opponents for Week One of the Finals. For those playing along at home, there are four key games that will play a huge say in their fate:

Hawthorn v North Melbourne (Saturday, UTAS Stadium)

Western Bulldogs v GWS Giants (Sunday, Mars Stadium)

Carlton v St Kilda (Sunday, Marvel Stadium)

Fremantle v Port Adelaide (Sunday, Optus Stadium)

For the Bulldogs, though, the equation is ultimately fairly straightforward - win and you’re in; lose, and it’s finals wait will come down to the very last game of the season. Again.