2025 Finals - How Do We Qualify?

So, here we are again, Bulldogs fans. It is Groundhog Day once more.

For the sixth time in the past seven seasons, the Western Bulldogs enter the final round of the home-and-away season with their finals fate still up for grabs. After 22 rounds of hard-fought football, the entire season will come down to a final-day dance with Fremantle at Marvel Stadium this Sunday; for both teams, the prize will be a one-way ticket to September.

But for the Bulldogs specifically, what are the permutations of Sunday? Who will we play Week One of the finals? Can we host a home final? What if it’s a draw? Well fear not, because we at The Salty Bulldog have run the rule over all the possible scenarios that could play out next week, and have compiled it into one neat article for you. So, without further ado, let’s start with the worst-case scenario…

WHAT IF THE BULLDOGS LOSE?

The good news is that there is a scenario where the Bulldogs’ finals hopes remain alive even if they do fall to Fremantle next Sunday. The bad news is that they’d be praying for miracles. Put simply, the only way the Bulldogs qualify for finals despite losing will be if Gold Coast lose both of its remaining two matches against Port Adelaide (A) and Essendon (H). Given that the Suns play Port Adelaide on the Friday night, we’ll already know by the opening bounce on Sunday whether this is still a live possibility.

If the Bulldogs and the Suns both lose this weekend, then all eyes will turn to the final match between Gold Coast and Essendon (to be played Wednesday week). If the Suns pick up a result in any of those two games (win or draw), then the Bulldogs will finish ninth and miss out on finals.

If somehow the Suns do drop both of those games, then the Bulldogs will finish in 8^th place, and play whoever finishes fifth in an away Elimination Final. Depending on the results of other games, that opponent could realistically be any of the GWS Giants, Fremantle, or Collingwood. Matchups against Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane are possible in theory only – playing Geelong or Hawthorn would require multiples results in excess of triple figures to transpire, while a Brisbane matchup would require both Fremantle to win by over 100 points and for Brisbane and Hawthorn to play out a draw.

WHAT IF THE BULLDOGS DRAW?

It’s pretty much see above, the only difference being the Suns would have to secure four premiership points from their remaining two games (either win one or draw both). Again, the Bulldogs cannot finish higher than 8^th in this scenario, and the list of potential opponents remains the same.

WHAT IF THE BULLDOGS WIN?

Of course, none of those worries about needing results in other games matter if we just do our bit, right? If the Western Bulldogs defeat Fremantle on Sunday, they will play finals in 2025. That is an iron-clad guarantee. The club’s percentage is so strong that it will overtake at least Fremantle on the ladder, and subsequently cannot finish any lower than eighth.

However, trying to ascertain who the Bulldogs will play come Week One of the Finals is a slightly more challenging exercise, because of the eight rival clubs vying for September, the Western Bulldogs can still face any single one of them. That the Bulldogs can still face anyone inside the top nine come Week One is about the best indication of how tight this finals race is.

Naturally, some of these outcomes are far more likely to pan out than others, but none of these possibilities are relying on 100-point thrashings or huge swings in percentages. Simple win-loss outcomes are all that are required for these scenarios.

The reason that all a finals matchup against all eight clubs is still a live possibility is because the Bulldogs can still mathematically finish as high as fourth. Given that victory will see the Bulldogs finish anywhere between fourth and eighth, let’s look at what would need to happen for the Bulldogs to finish in each of those places:

TO FINISH FOURTH:

-          Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions WIN

-          Collingwood, Hawthorn, and GWS Giants LOSE

-          Gold Coast Suns LOSE ONCE

Potential Opponents: Away to Adelaide or Geelong in the First Qualifying Final

TO FINISH FIFTH:

-          Western Bulldogs WIN

-          Two of Collingwood, Hawthorn and GWS Giants LOSE

-          Gold Coast Suns LOSE ONCE

Potential Opponents: Home to Hawthorn, Collingwood, Fremantle, Gold Coast, or the GWS Giants in the First Elimination Final

TO FINISH SIXTH:

-          Western Bulldogs WIN

-          One of Collingwood, Hawthorn and GWS Giants LOSE

-          Gold Coast Suns LOSE ONCE

Potential Opponents: Home to Hawthorn, Collingwood, Gold Coast, or GWS Giants in the Second Elimination Final (GWS Giants matchup only possible if Gold Coast lose twice)

TO FINISH SEVENTH:

-          Western Bulldogs WIN

-          Collingwood, Hawthorn, GWS Giants WIN

-          Gold Coast WIN ONCE

OR

-          Western Bulldogs WIN

-          Two of Collingwood, Hawthorn and GWS Giants WIN

-          Gold Coast WIN TWICE

Potential Opponent: Away to Brisbane Lions or GWS in the Second Elimination Final

TO FINISH EIGHTH:

-          Western Bulldogs WIN

-          Collingwood, Hawthorn, GWS Giants WIN

-          Gold Coast WIN TWICE

Potential Opponent: Away to Gold Coast Suns or Collingwood in the First Elimination Final