5 Things We Learned - Round 21

The Western Bulldogs were defeated by the Essendon Bombers at Marvel Stadium by 13 points, 12.12 84 to 15.7 97 in what was a horror day, to say the least. In the process, the Bombers ended their six-game losing streak to the Dogs and the game was the seventh this round where the team sitting lower on the ladder went on to record a win.

For all that is mighty, this game hurts not just simply for the defeat but for the fact we are once again back in the rat race to secure a home qualifying final.

We had a bad day no doubt but we have to remember that we have sat in the top two for every week bar the first two rounds of the season for a reason. This is a resilient and proud team and we will bounce back as we have always done before.

One thing is we can all agree on is that each injury we get is a massive kick in the guts and the Footy Gods can go and get...

The Western Bulldogs walk off Marvel Stadium following their surprising loss to Essendon. Source: AFL Photos.

1) Where The Match Was Lost

Oh boy, where do I even start...

There were a number of factors that cost us immensely but let's try and break it down and condense it into a few key areas.

People might focus the majority of the attention on our defense and our accuracy yesterday but what was just as much at fault if not more was our midfield.

This is now the third week in a row we've lost the centre clearances and this time it cost us dearly as the Bombers scored heavily, taking full advantage of the +6 differential (12-18 centre clearances), kicking six goals from that source (6.3 - 39); which was the most of any team since 2019, to just our two goals.

Across the season, the Dogs are +136 on their opposition for effective clearances, as well as +66 for points from effective clearances so for us to only score 21 points from stoppages whilst conceding 70 (11.4) was nothing short of a disaster.

Apart from Jackson Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli there was little help at any of the centre bounces or stoppages they accounted for 61% (19) of our 31 clearances, collecting nine and 10 respectively.

Dunkley and Treloar are still a bit underdone and on the return from injury and will surely improve with each week but getting just three clearances from Libba and Smith is simply not good enough (2 & 1) as inside midfielders. In comparison Essendon had four players with five or more clearances.

Offensively we might have also been a fair bit off but at least the effort was there. What was concerning was our running the other way as Essendon had the five highest players for average speed in defence.

We definitely did look slow and looking at the numbers we had no players in the top 5 for distance covered as well and had just one player in the top five for sprint efforts (Hunter 5th with 19) and lost the repeat sprint effort substantially 20-33.

Further emphasising our lack of two way running can be seen with the Dogs recording just the 267 sprint efforts to Essendon's 326. When a team lays just 37 tackles throughout the game (lowest of the year) and is beaten in sprint efforts by that margin it is quite damning.

To top it all off our pressure was probably the worst we have seen this year as we recorded a poor pressure rating in the first (154), third (168) and fourth (164) quarters and were just average (180) in the second term for an overall match rating of 166 (poor). Essendon on the other hand were deemed elite in their first (215) and third (206) quarters, below average in the second (171) and poor in the last (168) for a match rating of 193 (above average).

This of course allowed Peter Wright to transform into Wayne Carey reincarnate which I am still finding hard to comprehend how that's even possible.

2) The Goal Kicking Conundrum

This could really belong with point one but I feel that it needs to have a "Lesson" dedicated on its own.

No doubt it was our midfield who let us down yesterday in a defensive manner but in offensive terms we completely shot ourselves in the foot, butchering chance after chance.

In season 2021 the Bulldogs have ranked 10th this year at 47% for goal accuracy but when you break it down across the list we have nine players shooting above 50%, six at 50% with a further 17 players below that mark. 11 Bulldogs this year have not had a shot at goal.

Against Essendon, we saw a time-honoured foe in set shot goalkicking making its return to haunt us once again as we converted just eight of our seventeen set shot attempts into a goal (47%).

According to Champion Data, when accounting for the angle, distance and the pressure on our 33 shots at goal, the expected score for the Western Bulldogs was 117 not 84, and for Essendon the expected score was 83 not 97. This 47 point swing on the 13 point margin highlights just how poor our goal-kicking was.

The Bulldogs shot at 36% against the Bombers - well below our expected accuracy of 52%, as we took 33 shots at goal but only saw 24 of them count on the scoreboard, with the remaining nine shots resulting in a grand total of 0 points.

Interestingly it wasn't our close-range goal kicking that hurt us on this occasion as we kicked 8.4 from registered scores between the goal line and 30 metres out but it was our long-distance shots that have generally been our friends this year.

The midfield of course was well down but even with that we still had plenty of chances to win the game despite how much Essendon relied on an anomaly of Peter Wright playing the game of his life.

It purely came down to efficiency not just in front of goal but in taking your chances by generating scoreboard pressure from defensive half turnovers.

It is quite rare for a side to lose a game despite recording 21 more inside 50s (60 to 39) but we found a way to do it.

The Shot Chart Analysis.

3) How We Re-Jig The Forward Structure

It was disheartening to see Josh Bruce grab his left knee in the closing stages of the game. We had already come to terms with the defeat but to see our number one key forward this year suffer such an innocuous injury which could not only have a huge say in this year Premiership but his career as well in 2022.

We can expect Cody Weightman and Mitch Hannan to return to the team this week against Hawthorn and provide pressure at ground level and in the air as well but they aren't quite the marking key forward Bruce is.

There aren't too many key position options on our list who are adequate up forward bar Josh Schache and we have been playing him down back in recent weeks of course. Lewis Young has just one career goal and doesn't tend to be given the chance to build continuity in his game meaning there is going to be a mountain of pressure for Aaron Naughton to take on as he will have just a sixth gamer in Jamarra Ugle-Hagan for company.

People might say it is best to throw English up forward and bring in Jordan Sweet but he isn't going to add a huge point of difference to the side in terms of playing as a ruckman. We just have to pray that Stefan Martin is able to return to the field and just back English to hold his own in the ruck for a little while longer.

Perhaps it might be time to once again call upon the services of Zaine Cordy and re-enact the heroics of 2016 by throwing him forward and utilise him as a battering ram and nullify opposition interceptors as well as shielding Naughton.

Unfortunately, the Western Bulldogs won't be seeing star forward Josh Bruce for the remainder of 2021 following confirmation of his ACL injury. Source: AFL Photos.

4) The October Trade Request

We saw how low key Sam Power operates over the past three AFL trade periods as he has brought in some rather underrated acquisitions to the Club but we can all pray and hope the club is able to pull another rabbit out of the hat and find a ruckman - not a key defender - to fill our biggest hole on our list.

As much as English has improved this year from a hitout to advantage point of view, we have only conceded less than 30 hitouts in just three games this season despite his best efforts.

As much as people can point out that our defense isn't good enough, it has worked quite well this year as we have remained in the top-four for least points against this season, conceding over 80 points on just six occasions (admittedly there have been three games where we have conceded 79). Wouldn't it be more productive to fix the solution at the source instead of reacting to it?

It doesn't mean you need a top-shelf ruckman to win a flag as the last top-tier ruck to win a flag was Brad Ottens back in 2011 but it also doesn't mean you neglect the issue.

We thought we had the answer with Stefan Martin who has played some good football this year for us but at 34 years of age, he was, of course, a stop-gap fix. You can't really blame the club for his injuries this year and his recruitment as it was technically a free hit as the trade involved rookie Lachie Young and North Melbourne's fourth-round draft pick. The question is who else is out there that is low-key enough that is very much capable of getting the job done.

The tricky part is factoring in the trade assets we currently have (1st and 4th round selections) and the salary cap space that is left with much of it going to be chewed up by some very handy players in Josh Dunkley, Caleb Daniel, Jackson Macrae and Bailey Dale next year.

This is even without mentioning the eventual Draft bid that will be put on Sam Darcy later this year who is speculated to go in the top 10.

Sam Power was a wizard last October but he will have to go full Grand Master this year - especially when a large portion of 2022 will be without Josh Bruce up forward.

5) Are We Still A Real Shot This Year Now?

The destiny to finish on top of the ladder for the first time in our history is no longer in our hands but we can still focus on the minimum which is qualifying for a home final. We are now equal on points with Geelong and Port Adelaide on 60, Melbourne has snuck ahead on 62 while in the bottom half of the top eight Brisbane and Sydney are each respectively on 52 apiece.

We still have two chances to lock up a top-two spot (and hopefully first place!) but are our premiership chances done with a season-ending injury to key forward Josh Bruce? Or if we have to potentially play a qualifying final away from home?

In 2021 we have had 23 separate injuries; mostly medium to long-term ones, with the average injury time our players have spent out spanning from six to eight weeks on the sidelines. And yet... we still have won 15 games. We still sit in the top four and have done so since round three as well as sat on top for eight of the 21 rounds played.

We also have the small factor of having a player named Marcus Bontempelli who is several footballers in one.

This is the crunch time of the season but we still have more than enough quality to have many teams looking over their shoulders. Let me reiterate it clearly. We are still a Premiership threat but we'll just have to perform a few magic tricks along the way to get the job done.