Analysing The Pick 4 Trade

It was a story that had been gathering momentum for several weeks, but the Western Bulldogs and the Gold Coast Suns wasted very little time in agreeing to a swap of draft picks (which included Pick 4 in this year’s draft) when the AFL Trade Period opened yesterday.

Just hours after the Trade Period commenced, the Bulldogs and the Suns exchanged a glut of picks across multiple drafts. But despite securing the coveted commodity of a top-five pick, the deal has been met with a great deal of skepticism from Bulldogs fans.

So, with that in mind, we thought we would have a look at the trade, why the Bulldogs felt the need to do it, and whether in fact the trade is a win-win for both sides.

THE TRADE:

Western Bulldogs receive: Pick 4, 46, 51, Future Third-Round Draft Pick

Gold Coast Suns receive: Pick 10, 17, Future First-Round Draft Pick

THE HISTORY:

The Suns have a mountainous task ahead of them with respect to the draft this season. Their priority will be to accrue sufficient draft points (as opposed to picks) so that they are able to match bids on not one, but three Academy players, all of who are projected to be taken inside the top 15 in this year’s draft.

Consequently, Pick 4 was thrust into the shop window the moment the Suns position in the draft was confirmed. Given that Pick 4 on its own will not be enough for the Suns to match the bids that they need to, it makes sense for them to sell it clubs who in turn may be able to provide the Suns with a series of picks that have a points value exceeding Pick 4.

There were several suitors who queued up for the opportunity to pry their way into the top-five of the draft, including Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Essendon. But the Bulldogs led the race for Pick 4 pretty much from the moment it was for grabs, with their offer to the Suns bettering anything that rival clubs were prepared to cough up.

Western Bulldogs List Manager Sam Power played a key role in the Bulldogs securing Pick 4. Source: Getty Images

WHY IT’S A GOOD DEAL:

Let us start with the obvious: getting your hands on a top-five draft pick is always a good thing. Although the Bulldogs have matched bids on the likes of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy at the top end of the draft in recent seasons, the club have not entered draft night with a top-five pick since 2013, when they picked up a young Marcus Bontempelli.

The key takeaway being that the Bulldogs now have direct access to almost all the most talented young footballers in the country. Sans Academy prospects, father-sons, and likely No.1 pick Harley Reid, the Dogs have the pick of the field, and several players have already been linked to the club, including livewire small forward Nick Watson, and Tasmanian midfielders Ryley Sanders and Colby McKercher, all of who will be able to fill crucial gaps in the Bulldogs playing list.

Furthermore, while the Suns have several impending bids on their Academy players that they will need to be prepared for, the Bulldogs will likely have a bid of their own to match – Jordan Croft. Son of Matthew, Jordan is an athletic key forward who is expected to have a bid made on him within the first 10-15 picks. Had the Bulldogs held on to Picks 10 and 17, it’s likely that either or even both of those picks would have been sacrificed to match a bid on Croft, leaving the Dogs with Croft and potentially one other draftee very late in the piece. By pulling off this trade, the Dogs guarantee themselves a shot at an elite young talent, in addition to Croft. Two talented youngsters are always better than one.

Livewire forward Nick Watson is one possible option the Bulldogs could draft with Pick 4. Source: Getty Images

Crucially, Picks 46 and 51 have also been included in the trade, meaning that excluding Pick 4, the Bulldogs possess 1,172 draft points with their remaining picks, allowing them to match any bid made on Croft from pick 10 onwards (once the 20% Father-Son discount is applied). The total draft points value may decline on draft night, but we’ll get to that later.

If the Dogs don’t have enough points in this year’s draft hand, they can go into draft deficit, which will impact the value of the picks they receive in next year’s draft, but still allow them to match a bid for Croft in this draft. Given that they have already sacrificed next year’s first-round selection, it would seem as if this draft is their priority, and missing out next year is not a massive concern at this point.

One factor that can’t be overlooked though is that Croft hasn’t technically requested to join the Bulldogs as a Father-Son prospect yet, although it’s highly unlikely the Bulldogs would have agreed to this trade if they didn’t have some indication that Croft was wanting to join.

Finally, this year’s draft is particularly compromised, with numerous Academy/Father-Son prospects expected to go very early on. When bids for these prospects are matched, it pushes the rest of the draft order down, and results in the subsequent picks being less valuable from a points perspective. According to Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft Guide on AFL.com.au, there are currently six Academy/Father-Son prospects inside the top 25 that rival clubs have first refusal on. In a certain scenario, bids for all those players could see what was the Bulldogs Pick 17 slide down to 23, which is a far less appealing selection. As we established earlier, this means that the pick also decreases from a points value perspective, which makes matching bids more difficult.

WHY IT’S A BAD DEAL:

We started with the obvious last time, so we will do so again here: the Bulldogs gave up three first-round draft selections for this Pick 4. That is a significant amount of assets. For comparison, Geelong traded away three first-round picks in 2020, and it was enough to land them Jeremy Cameron, who has gone on to kick 157 goals in 59 games for the Cats, and also helped them to a flag in 2022.

It’s not to say that we should be expecting similar productivity from whoever does arrive at the Dogs with that pick, but it is still a significant sacrifice to give up three first-round selections, even if it does get you a top-five selection. Rightly or wrongly, there will be a lot of pressure on the would-be draftee to ensure that the trade gamble pays off, but perhaps the greater pressure lies with Sam Power and his recruiting team to get the decision right on draft night. As we said earlier, it has been a long time since the Bulldogs have been entrusted with a pick this valuable.

Jordan Croft was a major factor in the Bulldogs' plans to target Gold Coast's Pick 4. Source: Getty Images

The trade also puts a lot of pressure on the Bulldogs to perform in Season 2024. Remember, in addition to Picks 10 and 17 this year, the Bulldogs also handed over their natural first-round selection in next year’s draft. As a result, even if the Bulldogs finished last next season, they would not receive the No.1 pick in the draft – it is now tied to the Suns. Should the Bulldogs underperform next season, this trade could cost them a highly-coveted pick, so the club will be hoping to go deep in September, and avoid the ignominy of passing up a top pick.

The other aspect of this deal that hurts the Bulldogs is that they are now well and truly hamstrung when it comes to trying to orchestrate any further deals, at least for the time being. After Pick 4, the Dogs hold picks 38, 46, 51, 67, 70, & 73; they’re going to need all of them if they want to match a bid on Croft, meaning that the Dogs don’t really have any assets in this year’s draft that they can use to facilitate further deals. St Kilda’s Nick Coffield last week requested a trade to the Bulldogs, while reports continue to link Melbourne’s James Harmes with a move to the Western Oval. While the latter is yet to be officially confirmed, it demonstrates that the Bulldogs will need to find more assets from somewhere to get potential trades over the line.

There will be opportunities for them to bolster their tradeable assets; Jordon Sweet has requested a trade to Port Adelaide, so a deal can be struck there, and the club can also dip its hand into next year’s draft picks as well, but for now, there isn’t much for the Dogs to use at the trade table, as a result of this pick swap with the Suns.

IN CONCLUSION:

All up, it’s a really interesting deal, and there are strong arguments on both sides of the ledger as to whether or not this represents a good deal for the Bulldogs. Ultimately, the Bulldogs had their eye on someone in that top-five range, and this trade gives them an excellent chance at being able to bring them to the club, while also having enough left over to match a bid for Jordan Croft, should that come within that expected range of Pick 10-15. Yes, the Bulldogs had to give up numerous assets to pull this off, and there is a risk of things blowing up in their face should the Bulldogs finish at the foot of the ladder next year, but the club is backing itself to do well in 2024, and that confidence, combined with the arrival of a top-five prospect, must give fans encouragement.