The Final Word - Elimination Final

So, here we are again. We’re at that point of the year where everything changes. The seasons change, and, for those who are still standing at this point of the season, a new-found sense of optimism sweeps across the fanbase. We swiftly put the 23 weeks of gruelling football behind us, and instead look ahead to the potential of a magical month that ends in the ultimate prize.

But this year, particularly for Bulldogs fans, there are some similarities. Two weeks ago, we are at the ladder predictor, mapping up all the possible combinations necessary to qualify for finals. Now, we scope out the first week of finals, drawing the pathway that ends up with us emerging victorious. Admittedly, the dream could all be over in a matter of hours, but it’s hard not to get excited about the potential of what we can achieve this year, particularly when you consider what we’ve been able to do in recent years from a similar position.

The first stop on the road to glory is Fremantle – the quiet achievers of Season 2022. Finals pose a challenge regardless of the opposition, but they will be a difficult team to stop. We saw that first-hand only a few weeks ago when they deployed their possession-based football to great effect, getting the better of us at Marvel Stadium. They have an extra five-and-a-half wins this year compared to last, they’ve enjoyed the emergence of several young stars, and what’s more, they’ve been able to do it largely without the presence of captain Nat Fyfe, who has managed just the seven games this season.

Their midfield brigade has stepped up in the absence of Fyfe, with the likes of Andrew Brayshaw stepping up in his absence, emerging as a potential candidate for the Brownlow Medal this year. They have also recruited smartly in the off-season, with new Dockers Will Brodie and Jordan Clark becoming mainstays in the Dockers lineup. Their defence is dour – only Melbourne have conceded fewer points across the home-and-away season, with Alex Pearce, Brennan Cox and Luke Ryan forming an intimidating mix across the backline. Their forward line is lacking slightly, but Rory Lobb has still booted 34 goals this year in a career-best return, and they have some handy smaller options that have been able to contribute throughout the year.

There are reasons to be concerned about tonight’s game. I spoke on the podcast last week about the idea of where you ranked over the majority of the home-and-away season reflecting in finals. Whichever way you want to analyse the matchups, conditions, history or finals experience, the reality is Fremantle have spent most of the year around the top four, while the Bulldogs have spent most of the season outside the top eight. Such facts tend to reflect in finals, regardless of what sort of form both teams are in heading into the match. We saw it last year when we faced a red-hot Essendon in an Elimination Final while we were stuttering. It’s why making the Grand Final last year wasn’t as much of a shock as it was in 2016. We spent most of the year among the top two, and it showed in the final standings when it was all said and done.

The absence of Tom Liberatore also stings. The Bulldogs' midfield has long (and rightly) been lauded for its quality and depth, but that doesn’t make any one player easily replaceable. Liberatore is 5th in the competition for total clearances and 7th for contested possessions; in a final where the contest is fierce, his ability to extract the ball and provide first use to his teammates is at its most crucial right now, and to be without it is a massive loss.

But equally so, there are plenty of reasons to be positive. We know the Bulldogs have been in this position before, in do-or-die finals where no one has given them a chance, only for them to front up and blow the opposition away. There are eerie similarities present between tonight and the Elimination Final in 2016, where the Bulldogs again had to travel to Perth to play a red-hot West Coast side. The Bulldogs got the early jump on the Eagles, silenced the crowd, and never looked back. A similar start tonight will go a long way to getting the Bulldogs over the line.

The conditions could also play in the Bulldogs' hands. As good as Fremantle were under the roof at Marvel, they have been notoriously rickety in less ideal conditions weather-wise. They have dropped games to the likes of Gold Coast, Collingwood and Melbourne in convincing fashion in the elements, and while it won’t be bucketing down tonight, it won’t be played under the pristine conditions that are so conducive to Fremantle’s preferred style of play. It won’t be decisive, but it will help.

And then there’s Luke Beveridge. There’s no doubt he has his critics, but very few coaches are capable of producing backs-to-the-walls performances in the way that he has. As a coach leading his team, he is at his most dangerous when the Bulldogs are perceived to have no chance of victory. We saw that in 2016, and we’ve seen it several times during last year’s finals series as well. We’ve already seen how brave he is heading into this match, naming Toby McLean in what will be his first start to the year, who you might expect will attempt to fill the Liberatore-sized hole. McLean is a solid candidate for it, so his performance will be one to keep an eye on.

Speaking of the team, the balance is excellent. In terms of height, there are three tall defenders (Keath, Gardner, Cordy), three tall forwards (Naughton, Ugle-Hagan, Darcy) and one ruckman (English), with one of the tall forwards – most likely Darcy – to play as a relief ruck. It’s the exact setup in terms of numbers we had when we were at our very best in 2021. We look capable of covering the height in Fremantle’s forward line, while we might just be able to stretch Fremantle defensively if we get things right going forward. Admittedly, it’s a desperately inexperienced forward line, with Ugle-Hagan and Darcy combining for just 24 games, but both are precocious young talents; this is a terrific opportunity for either of them to announce their arrival with a huge performance in a cut-throat final.

It won’t be easy, sure. But Premierships are not easily won. For all the struggles and below-par performances the Western Bulldogs have produced this year, we’re still here, and supposedly without hope. But that is exactly why we have hope. We're here despite everything that has happened this year, with everything to believe in and nothing to lose. To quote Cristiano Ronaldo, “Dreaming is free – that is why we have to dream”